Latest posts
When Confidence Is Lost
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So the eurozone crisis is back with full force. Did it ever really go away? I don’t propose to try and recap the events of the last few days in Cyprus with the bail-in of bank depositors, things are moving quickly enough that I would be out of...
We Are Sleeping On A Volcano
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“I believe that right now we are sleeping on a volcano … can you not sense, by a sort of instinctive intuition, that the earth is trembling again in Europe? Can you not feel … the wind of revolution in the air?” Alexis de To...
Is There A Bull Market Underway?
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It is a long time since I last made a financial prediction in print, but I feel a need to make one now. The previous ones can be found here and here. Regular readers might recall that I have been confused about the state of the economic world for a w...
An End To The Political Protection Of The Banking System?
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The election result in Italy, when combined with the obvious horrors of mass unemployment in a number of countries, real financial hardship for many and a growing number of corruption scandals (listed here) might just be the beginning of the end. Wit...
Is Disaster The New Normal?
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Where has the volatility gone in financial markets? Why is the current political situation not causing mayhem? Over the last few weeks I have been developing a theory about the current state of financial markets. The theory isn’t fully fleshed...
Too Many Envelopes Of Happiness
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Corruption amongst public officials is never nice, but it seems that suddenly it is everywhere. Amongst the recent news I have seen references alleging: - Slovenian politicians not declaring their incomes - Greek politicians overlooking tax evading f...
A Politician Is Not A Country
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Today I plan to ask a simple and somewhat rhetorical question. It relates to the recent movements in the eurozone crisis and their relationship to German politics. If you have been following the eurozone crisis, you might have noticed that the pressu...
Matching Ideas To Money
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Readers of this blog will know that I post my thoughts about innovation policy from time to time. One of the key areas – at least in my mind – of the innovation policy area is that of funding. Typically an entrepreneur with an idea does n...
A Lurch Backwards In The Eurozone Crisis
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Over the last few days, it seems to me as though the eurozone crisis has become much worse. Please don’t misunderstand me, there hasn’t been another bailout an it was hushed up … the Netherlands didn’t request help, no. Instea...
The Greek Tragedy Is Extended
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I can remember being asked by a friend back in June what was going to happen with the euro for the rest of this year. That is the kind of question that I normally try and fend off, but I was feeling a little vulnerable that day and so I just blurted...
Some Soap Operas Are More Important Than Others
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My local chip shop is owned by a Londoner called Andy. A couple of days ago I found myself being talked to by him about the Premiership. I don’t follow football all that closely, but he and I support the same team so there is a very real but li...
Should You Follow The Smart Money?
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Despite having some time on my hands to think, I am still baffled by the current state of the markets. Firstly, despite all the potential risks facing the global economy (Greece, Spain, Italy, the US financial cliff and a slowdown in China) stock mar...
Summer 2012 Is Poorly Timed
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There have been a couple of legal challenges made to the European Stability Mechanism. The challenge in Ireland seems to have been brushed aside but there is still, of course, an appeal to be heard. Even so, the progress of the ESM seems to be pretty...
Can Banks Be Trusted Without Strong Regulations?
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If ever there was a demonstration that “light-touch” regulation of financial firms has not been a great success, this week has been it. Over the years, we have heard huge amounts from the banking sector about how they are competent to reg...
Why Do We Still Tax Savings?
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The title of this blog post asks a very simple question, but one that I feel needs asking in the present circumstances. In many countries, the interest earned on savings in a bank account are liable for some form of taxation. Usually it is taxed as e...
Polar Opposites And A European Banking Union
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Over the last ten days or so there has been much talk about a European Banking Union (if this is all news to you, this post by Gavyn Davies in the FT explains all you might need to know). Since that post has been written there has been much said and...
Financial History Repeats Itself Too
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Recently I have been dipping into The Great Crash 1929 by J.K Galbraith. It is a wonderful book that I cannot recommend highly enough. Everyone should read it. It should be part of the curriculum in every country for every student. I can only hope th...
Two Downside Only Elections
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In the end, a vote in favour of the Fiscal Compact of just over 60% looks like Ireland was almost in agreement. If nothing else, the vote shows just how far the eurozone crisis has come and how meaningless many of the measures to date have been. When...
What About Cyprus?
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It seems that as the days pass, more and more officials are openly discussing a Greek exit from the euro. Now that this sort of momentum is building it is impossible to see any other course of action. I first wrote about a Greek exit here all the way...
Misunderstanding The Greek Election Results
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As I read some of the latest news about the Greek election and the attempts to form a government I am struck by the following quotes: “We cannot make true our dream of a left-wing government“, says Alexis Tsipras of SYRIZA and that “...
