URL: Latest posts
Why I think the ECB is not about to cut the MRO rate
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On Thursday May 2nd, the Governing Council of the ECB will hold is monthly meeting to determine the path of monetary policy. The market consensus seems to be that the ECB will cut the refi rate (MRO rate). I disagree. … Continue reading →...
Elections in Europe 2013: Calendar and Voter Intention Surveys – France, Greece, Italy, Austria and Germany
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In the following lines I provide a brief calendar of the relevant elections ahead. Following this, I summarise the likely outcome of these elections in light of the present and past voter intention surveys. Much will change in the next … Conti...
What Happened in 2012?
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This post takes a long overdue look at the monetary, financial, economic and political developments that took place during 2012 and the trends at the end of the year. It’s an exercise in taking stock and follows a relatively simple … Con...
The UK Referendum on EU Membership: Narrative and Politics
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As the the British Prime Minister is on the verge of announcing a referendum on continued UK membership of the EU, this post considers the narrative surrounding this issue and concludes that despite the arguments in favour or against, voter …...
(Updated) Upcoming Elections in Europe (2012 – 2013): Calendar and Voter Intention Surveys (in France, Greece, Italy, Austria and Germany)
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In the following lines I provide a brief calendar of the relevant elections ahead. Following this, I summarise the likely outcome of these elections in light of the present and past voter intention surveys. Much will change in the next … Contin...
No Early Elections in Germany… But Almost?
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In the Summer of 2011 I stuck my neck out and “predicted” early elections in Germany, ahead of the scheduled September 2013 deadline. I was wrong. However, and probably as a consolation gift to myself, I review some a sequence … Con...
Some Comments on the USA’s ISA
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In a recent post discussing the EU’s TARGET2, I made some reference to the equivalent clearing and settlement system in the USA without any depth because it was beyond the purview of that post. To address that gap, I dedicate … Continue r...
The European Banking Union Negotiations – Supervision
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The banking union is a particularly important item in the long term reform agenda of the EU/Euro-Zone, and one that has often been neglected. In a crisis that is characterised by the linkages between public finances and the banking sectors, … C...
The Latest Greek Deal – Another Indictment of Intergovernmentalism
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This will be a short one about the latest example of the uselessness of intergovernmentalism… So after two failed attempts at finding common ground on Greece on November 13th and on November 20th, the Eurogroup finally came to a provisional ...
A Brief Review of the Eurosystem’s TARGET2 Imbalances
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This post is a long overdue look at the infamous TARGET2 (im)balances, which are yet another symptom of the ongoing malaise in the Euro-Zone. I do not claim to make any new contribution in this post, whose motivation was exclusively … Continue...
The week ahead – 25.09.2012 – 05.10.2012
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Here are the events for the coming week, with many thanks to Unicredit and to KBC, where you can find plenty of research, reviews of past events, and forecasts. There will be PMIs a-plenty to scare markets after the Spanish … Continue reading &...
Will Catalonia Become Independent Soon?
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My answer to the question is no. Eventually I think it will, but not soon. Here’s why: Catalonia, Portugal and Spain: Selective Historiography Independentist claims from Catalonia are centuries old, although with differing levels of int...
Visions of the Political Future of Europe: Reviewing Draghi’s Opinion
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This is the first in a series of posts about the future of Europe as envisaged by European leaders. It starts with the perspective offered by Mario Draghi, because it would appear to me that his was the first one … Continue reading →...
Introducing the “Visions of the Political Future of Europe” Series
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Some of the posts on this website try to offer rather technical economic and political descriptions of the dynamics driving political economies. Others have attempted to provide a review of recent events. There have been scenario analyses, quantified...
Euro-Zone Banking Union: Coverage and Pace of Implementation
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This post considers the present debate about the coverage of the Banking Union to be created in the Euro-Zone as well as the pace of its implementation. This coverage is contentious because it affects many established interests while attempting to &#...
ECB Market Intervention: Outright Monetary Transactions (“OMT”) – A Preliminary Assessment
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Last Thursday, September 6th, the ECB introduced its new goverment bond purchasing programme, known as the Outright Monetary Transactions (“OMT”). If you are interested in getting the information from the lion’s mouth, you can wat...
Moral Hazard: Labour Market & Insurance
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“Moral Hazard” is a very fashionable concept that has been thrown around a lot since 2007/08 as a result of bad practices by bankers. It is also a common place in discussions of central Bank’s intervention, the Debt Monetisation ris...
September 12th (2012) Elections in the Netherlands: Voter Intention Surveys
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So the Netherlands are getting ready to hold elections. This is post offers a quick description of the competing platforms and, drawing on the most recent voter intention surveys, provides a brief overview of the likely electoral outcomes. Readers sh...
(European) Debt Mutualisation: Lessons from the USA
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This post considers events in the history of the United Stated (USA) that involved the bailing out of state governments by the (newly created) federal government. This considerations are made because of their value as a template for a reform …...
The Logic of Collective Action
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I’ve been meaning to do this for a while, but only now found the time. The following is a model of interest group lobbying as taken from “A Theory of Groups and Organizations”, the first chapter of “The Logic of Collective … Contin...
